secular trend
Long-term changes in disease occurrence over time, typically spanning decades or longer periods.
Full Definition
Secular trends describe gradual, sustained changes in the frequency of psychiatric disorders across extended time periods, often reflecting shifts in societal factors, diagnostic practices, or environmental conditions. In psychiatric epidemiology, secular trends help identify whether apparent changes in mental health prevalence reflect true increases or decreases versus methodological changes such as improved detection or evolving diagnostic criteria. These trends are distinguished from shorter-term fluctuations or seasonal patterns and provide insight into the long-term trajectory of population mental health.
Usage
Usage note: Distinguish from shorter-term patterns and consider whether trends reflect true changes or methodological artifacts.
In Context
- "A secular trend toward increasing anxiety disorders was observed across three decades of surveillance data." — temporal analysis report
- "Researchers distinguished secular trends from cohort effects in the longitudinal dataset." — epidemiological analysis